appropriate test for significance of difference - statistics

I need help conducting a hypothesis test to compare the coefficients for two of my explanatory variables in Stata. My null and alternative are:
null: β1=β2 vs alt: β1>β2.
So far I have used the command test to compare the two estimates. However, I don't know if I can modify test to fit my alt.

To do one-sided tests on coefficients, you can
perform the corresponding two-sided test on the coefficients (or sometimes just look at the regression output)
use the results to get a p-value for the one-sided test. This step can done in two ways, either by using using the reverse cumulative Student's t distribution directly or by doing some arithmetic on the p-value from the two-sided test.
If you are testing differences of coefficients (since a=b is equivalent to a-b=0), the approach is the same as doing single coefficients. You need to do a two-sided test of the difference:
sysuse auto, clear
regress price mpg weight
gen high_mpg = mpg>20
gen high_weight = weight>3000
reg price high_mpg high_weight foreign
/* Test H0: diff = 0 */
test high_weight - foreign = 0
display r(p)
display r(F)
/* The ttail approach works when the actual coefficient difference is positive or negative */
local sign_diff = sign(_b[high_weight] - _b[foreign] - 0)
display "p-value for Ha: diff < 10 = " ttail(r(df_r),`sign_diff'*sqrt(r(F)))
display "p-value for Ha: diff > 10 = " 1-ttail(r(df_r),`sign_diff'*sqrt(r(F)))
/* Can also do it by hand like this if diff is positive (like above) */
display "p-value for Ha: diff < 0 = " r(p)/2
display "p-value for Ha: diff > 0 = " 1-r(p)/2
/* if difference is negative, you can still do it by hand */
/* but need to flip the p-value division rules since we are on the other */
/* side of the distribution */
/* Test H0': diff2 = -400 */
test high_mpg - foreign = -400
local sign_diff2 = sign(_b[high_mpg] - _b[foreign] + 400)
display "p-value for Ha': diff2 < 0 = " ttail(r(df_r),`sign_diff2'*sqrt(r(F)))
display 1-r(p)/2
display "p-value for Ha': diff2 > 0 = " 1-ttail(r(df_r),`sign_diff2'*sqrt(r(F)))
display r(p)/2
If your test returns r(chi2) instead of r(F), you need to swap the ttail part for
normal(`sign_diff'*sqrt(r(chi2)))

Related

Strange result from Summation of numbers in Excel and Matlab [duplicate]

I am writing a program where I need to delete duplicate points stored in a matrix. The problem is that when it comes to check whether those points are in the matrix, MATLAB can't recognize them in the matrix although they exist.
In the following code, intersections function gets the intersection points:
[points(:,1), points(:,2)] = intersections(...
obj.modifiedVGVertices(1,:), obj.modifiedVGVertices(2,:), ...
[vertex1(1) vertex2(1)], [vertex1(2) vertex2(2)]);
The result:
>> points
points =
12.0000 15.0000
33.0000 24.0000
33.0000 24.0000
>> vertex1
vertex1 =
12
15
>> vertex2
vertex2 =
33
24
Two points (vertex1 and vertex2) should be eliminated from the result. It should be done by the below commands:
points = points((points(:,1) ~= vertex1(1)) | (points(:,2) ~= vertex1(2)), :);
points = points((points(:,1) ~= vertex2(1)) | (points(:,2) ~= vertex2(2)), :);
After doing that, we have this unexpected outcome:
>> points
points =
33.0000 24.0000
The outcome should be an empty matrix. As you can see, the first (or second?) pair of [33.0000 24.0000] has been eliminated, but not the second one.
Then I checked these two expressions:
>> points(1) ~= vertex2(1)
ans =
0
>> points(2) ~= vertex2(2)
ans =
1 % <-- It means 24.0000 is not equal to 24.0000?
What is the problem?
More surprisingly, I made a new script that has only these commands:
points = [12.0000 15.0000
33.0000 24.0000
33.0000 24.0000];
vertex1 = [12 ; 15];
vertex2 = [33 ; 24];
points = points((points(:,1) ~= vertex1(1)) | (points(:,2) ~= vertex1(2)), :);
points = points((points(:,1) ~= vertex2(1)) | (points(:,2) ~= vertex2(2)), :);
The result as expected:
>> points
points =
Empty matrix: 0-by-2
The problem you're having relates to how floating-point numbers are represented on a computer. A more detailed discussion of floating-point representations appears towards the end of my answer (The "Floating-point representation" section). The TL;DR version: because computers have finite amounts of memory, numbers can only be represented with finite precision. Thus, the accuracy of floating-point numbers is limited to a certain number of decimal places (about 16 significant digits for double-precision values, the default used in MATLAB).
Actual vs. displayed precision
Now to address the specific example in the question... while 24.0000 and 24.0000 are displayed in the same manner, it turns out that they actually differ by very small decimal amounts in this case. You don't see it because MATLAB only displays 4 significant digits by default, keeping the overall display neat and tidy. If you want to see the full precision, you should either issue the format long command or view a hexadecimal representation of the number:
>> pi
ans =
3.1416
>> format long
>> pi
ans =
3.141592653589793
>> num2hex(pi)
ans =
400921fb54442d18
Initialized values vs. computed values
Since there are only a finite number of values that can be represented for a floating-point number, it's possible for a computation to result in a value that falls between two of these representations. In such a case, the result has to be rounded off to one of them. This introduces a small machine-precision error. This also means that initializing a value directly or by some computation can give slightly different results. For example, the value 0.1 doesn't have an exact floating-point representation (i.e. it gets slightly rounded off), and so you end up with counter-intuitive results like this due to the way round-off errors accumulate:
>> a=sum([0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1]); % Sum 10 0.1s
>> b=1; % Initialize to 1
>> a == b
ans =
logical
0 % They are unequal!
>> num2hex(a) % Let's check their hex representation to confirm
ans =
3fefffffffffffff
>> num2hex(b)
ans =
3ff0000000000000
How to correctly handle floating-point comparisons
Since floating-point values can differ by very small amounts, any comparisons should be done by checking that the values are within some range (i.e. tolerance) of one another, as opposed to exactly equal to each other. For example:
a = 24;
b = 24.000001;
tolerance = 0.001;
if abs(a-b) < tolerance, disp('Equal!'); end
will display "Equal!".
You could then change your code to something like:
points = points((abs(points(:,1)-vertex1(1)) > tolerance) | ...
(abs(points(:,2)-vertex1(2)) > tolerance),:)
Floating-point representation
A good overview of floating-point numbers (and specifically the IEEE 754 standard for floating-point arithmetic) is What Every Computer Scientist Should Know About Floating-Point Arithmetic by David Goldberg.
A binary floating-point number is actually represented by three integers: a sign bit s, a significand (or coefficient/fraction) b, and an exponent e. For double-precision floating-point format, each number is represented by 64 bits laid out in memory as follows:
The real value can then be found with the following formula:
This format allows for number representations in the range 10^-308 to 10^308. For MATLAB you can get these limits from realmin and realmax:
>> realmin
ans =
2.225073858507201e-308
>> realmax
ans =
1.797693134862316e+308
Since there are a finite number of bits used to represent a floating-point number, there are only so many finite numbers that can be represented within the above given range. Computations will often result in a value that doesn't exactly match one of these finite representations, so the values must be rounded off. These machine-precision errors make themselves evident in different ways, as discussed in the above examples.
In order to better understand these round-off errors it's useful to look at the relative floating-point accuracy provided by the function eps, which quantifies the distance from a given number to the next largest floating-point representation:
>> eps(1)
ans =
2.220446049250313e-16
>> eps(1000)
ans =
1.136868377216160e-13
Notice that the precision is relative to the size of a given number being represented; larger numbers will have larger distances between floating-point representations, and will thus have fewer digits of precision following the decimal point. This can be an important consideration with some calculations. Consider the following example:
>> format long % Display full precision
>> x = rand(1, 10); % Get 10 random values between 0 and 1
>> a = mean(x) % Take the mean
a =
0.587307428244141
>> b = mean(x+10000)-10000 % Take the mean at a different scale, then shift back
b =
0.587307428244458
Note that when we shift the values of x from the range [0 1] to the range [10000 10001], compute a mean, then subtract the mean offset for comparison, we get a value that differs for the last 3 significant digits. This illustrates how an offset or scaling of data can change the accuracy of calculations performed on it, which is something that has to be accounted for with certain problems.
Look at this article: The Perils of Floating Point. Though its examples are in FORTRAN it has sense for virtually any modern programming language, including MATLAB. Your problem (and solution for it) is described in "Safe Comparisons" section.
type
format long g
This command will show the FULL value of the number. It's likely to be something like 24.00000021321 != 24.00000123124
Try writing
0.1 + 0.1 + 0.1 == 0.3.
Warning: You might be surprised about the result!
Maybe the two numbers are really 24.0 and 24.000000001 but you're not seeing all the decimal places.
Check out the Matlab EPS function.
Matlab uses floating point math up to 16 digits of precision (only 5 are displayed).

How do you find the sample space of flipping unfair coins?

So, usually for unbiased coins, the probability of getting 2 heads out of 3 flips is - 3C2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 3/8, since we know, the formula for probability is likely events divided by all possible events; we can say that there are 8 possible events here.
Now flip an unbiased coin with the probability of getting heads 80% of the time,
so the probability of getting 2 heads out of 3 flips is -
3C2 * 0.8 * 0.8 * 0.2 = 3/7.8125, so is the sample space 7.8125 here ?
It is still 8. 8 possible results. It's all about classical definition of probability.
In first example (p=50%) each possible result (for example {head, head, not_head}) has the same probability, that's why we can calculate
**total_prob = count_success/count_total = 3*1.000/8 = 0.375**
In the second (p=80%) we don't have this assumption anymore, so cannot use classical definition of probability (count_success/count_total), so we have to calculate
**total_prob = sum_success/count_total = 3*1.024/8 = 0.384**
In general, You can imagine, that in 1st example each result has weight=1.000, and in 2nd example results have different weights (for example {head, head, not_head} has weight=1.024 and {not_head, not_head, not_head} has weight=0.064)

Euler beam, solving differential equation in python

I must solve the Euler Bernoulli differential beam equation which is:
w’’’’(x) = q(x)
and boundary conditions:
w(0) = w(l) = 0
and
w′′(0) = w′′(l) = 0
The beam is as shown on the picture below:
beam
The continious force q is 2N/mm.
I have to use shooting method and scipy.integrate.odeint() func.
I can't even manage to start as i do not understand how to write the differential equation as a system of equation
Can someone who understands solving of differential equations with boundary conditions in python please help!
Thanks :)
The shooting method
To solve the fourth order ODE BVP with scipy.integrate.odeint() using the shooting method you need to:
1.) Separate the 4th order ODE into 4 first order ODEs by substituting:
u = w
u1 = u' = w' # 1
u2 = u1' = w'' # 2
u3 = u2' = w''' # 3
u4 = u3' = w'''' = q # 4
2.) Create a function to carry out the derivation logic and connect that function to the integrate.odeint() like this:
function calc(u, x , q)
{
return [u[1], u[2], u[3] , q]
}
w = integrate.odeint(calc, [w(0), guess, w''(0), guess], xList, args=(q,))
Explanation:
We are sending the boundary value conditions to odeint() for x=0 ([w(0), w'(0) ,w''(0), w'''(0)]) which calls the function calc which returns the derivatives to be added to the current state of w. Note that we are guessing the initial boundary conditions for w'(0) and w'''(0) while entering the known w(0)=0 and w''(0)=0.
Addition of derivatives to the current state of w occurs like this:
# the current w(x) value is the previous value plus the current change of w in dx.
w(x) = w(x-dx) + dw/dx
# others are calculated the same
dw(x)/dx = dw(x-dx)/dx + d^2w(x)/dx^2
# etc.
This is why we are returning values [u[1], u[2], u[3] , q] instead of [u[0], u[1], u[2] , u[3]] from the calc function, because u[1] is the first derivative so we add it to w, etc.
3.) Now we are able to set up our shooting method. We will be sending different initial boundary values for w'(0) and w'''(0) to odeint() and then check the end result of the returned w(x) profile to determine how close w(L) and w''(L) got to 0 (the known boundary conditions).
The program for the shooting method:
# a function to return the derivatives of w
def returnDerivatives(u, x, q):
return [u[1], u[2], u[3], q]
# a shooting funtion which takes in two variables and returns a w(x) profile for x=[0,L]
def shoot(u2, u4):
# the number of x points to calculate integration -> determines the size of dx
# bigger number means more x's -> better precision -> longer execution time
xSteps = 1001
# length of the beam
L= 1.0 # 1m
xSpace = np.linspace(0, L, xSteps)
q = 0.02 # constant [N/m]
# integrate and return the profile of w(x) and it's derivatives, from x=0 to x=L
return odeint(returnDerivatives, [ 0, u2, 0, u4] , xSpace, args=(q,))
# the tolerance for our results.
tolerance = 0.01
# how many numbers to consider for u2 and u4 (the guess boundary conditions)
u2_u4_maxNumbers = 1327 # bigger number, better precision, slower program
# you can also divide into separate variables like u2_maxNum and u4_maxNum
# these are already tested numbers (the best results are somewhere in here)
u2Numbers = np.linspace(-0.1, 0.1, u2_u4_maxNumbers)
# the same as above
u4Numbers = np.linspace(-0.5, 0.5, u2_u4_maxNumbers)
# result list for extracted values of each w(x) profile => [u2Best, u4Best, w(L), w''(L)]
# which will help us determine if the w(x) profile is inside tolerance
resultList = []
# result list for each U (or w(x) profile) => [w(x), w'(x), w''(x), w'''(x)]
resultW = []
# start generating numbers for u2 and u4 and send them to odeint()
for u2 in u2Numbers:
for u4 in u4Numbers:
U = []
U = shoot(u2,u4)
# get only the last row of the profile to determine if it passes tolerance check
result = U[len(U)-1]
# only check w(L) == 0 and w''(L) == 0, as those are the known boundary cond.
if (abs(result[0]) < tolerance) and (abs(result[2]) < tolerance):
# if the result passed the tolerance check, extract some values from the
# last row of the w(x) profile which we will need later for comaprisons
resultList.append([u2, u4, result[0], result[2]])
# add the w(x) profile to the list of profiles that passed the tolerance
# Note: the order of resultList is the same as the order of resultW
resultW.append(U)
# go through the resultList (list of extracted values from last row of each w(x) profile)
for i in range(len(resultList)):
x = resultList[i]
# both boundary conditions are 0 for both w(L) and w''(L) so we will simply add
# the two absolute values to determine how much the sum differs from 0
y = abs(x[2]) + abs(x[3])
# if we've just started set the least difference to the current
if i == 0:
minNum = y # remember the smallest difference to 0
index = 0 # remember index of best profile
elif y < minNum:
# current sum of absolute values is smaller
minNum = y
index = i
# print out the integral for w(x) over the beam
sum = 0
for i in resultW[index]:
sum = sum + i[0]
print("The integral of w(x) over the beam is:")
print(sum/1001) # sum/xSteps
This outputs:
The integral of w(x) over the beam is:
0.000135085272117
To print out the best profile for w(x) that we found:
print(resultW[index])
which outputs something like:
# w(x) w'(x) w''(x) w'''(x)
[[ 0.00000000e+00 7.54147813e-04 0.00000000e+00 -9.80392157e-03]
[ 7.54144825e-07 7.54142917e-04 -9.79392157e-06 -9.78392157e-03]
[ 1.50828005e-06 7.54128237e-04 -1.95678431e-05 -9.76392157e-03]
...,
[ -4.48774290e-05 -8.14851572e-04 1.75726275e-04 1.01560784e-02]
[ -4.56921910e-05 -8.14670764e-04 1.85892353e-04 1.01760784e-02]
[ -4.65067671e-05 -8.14479780e-04 1.96078431e-04 1.01960784e-02]]
To double check the results from above we will also solve the ODE using the numerical method.
The numerical method
To solve the problem using the numerical method we first need to solve the differential equations. We will get four constants which we need to find with the help of the boundary conditions. The boundary conditions will be used to form a system of equations to help find the necessary constants.
For example:
w’’’’(x) = q(x);
means that we have this:
d^4(w(x))/dx^4 = q(x)
Since q(x) is constant after integrating we have:
d^3(w(x))/dx^3 = q(x)*x + C
After integrating again:
d^2(w(x))/dx^2 = q(x)*0.5*x^2 + C*x + D
After another integration:
dw(x)/dx = q(x)/6*x^3 + C*0.5*x^2 + D*x + E
And finally the last integration yields:
w(x) = q(x)/24*x^4 + C/6*x^3 + D*0.5*x^2 + E*x + F
Then we take a look at the boundary conditions (now we have expressions from above for w''(x) and w(x)) with which we make a system of equations to solve the constants.
w''(0) => 0 = q(x)*0.5*0^2 + C*0 + D
w''(L) => 0 = q(x)*0.5*L^2 + C*L + D
This gives us the constants:
D = 0 # from the first equation
C = - 0.01 * L # from the second (after inserting D=0)
After repeating the same for w(0)=0 and w(L)=0 we obtain:
F = 0 # from first
E = 0.01/12.0 * L^3 # from second
Now, after we have solved the equation and found all of the integration constants we can make the program for the numerical method.
The program for the numerical method
We will make a FOR loop to go through the entire beam for every dx at a time and sum up (integrate) w(x).
L = 1.0 # in meters
step = 1001.0 # how many steps to take (dx)
q = 0.02 # constant [N/m]
integralOfW = 0.0; # instead of w(0) enter the boundary condition value for w(0)
result = []
for i in range(int(L*step)):
x= i/step
w = (q/24.0*pow(x,4) - 0.02/12.0*pow(x,3) + 0.01/12*pow(L,3)*x)/step # current w fragment
# add up fragments of w for integral calculation
integralOfW += w
# add current value of w(x) to result list for plotting
result.append(w*step);
print("The integral of w(x) over the beam is:")
print(integralOfW)
which outputs:
The integral of w(x) over the beam is:
0.00016666652805511192
Now to compare the two methods
Result comparison between the shooting method and the numerical method
The integral of w(x) over the beam:
Shooting method -> 0.000135085272117
Numerical method -> 0.00016666652805511192
That's a pretty good match, now lets see check the plots:
From the plots it's even more obvious that we have a good match and that the results of the shooting method are correct.
To get even better results for the shooting method increase xSteps and u2_u4_maxNumbers to bigger numbers and you can also narrow down the u2Numbers and u4Numbers to the same set size but a smaller interval (around the best results from previous program runs). Keep in mind that setting xSteps and u2_u4_maxNumbers too high will cause your program to run for a very long time.
You need to transform the ODE into a first order system, setting u0=w one possible and usually used system is
u0'=u1,
u1'=u2,
u2'=u3,
u3'=q(x)
This can be implemented as
def ODEfunc(u,x): return [ u[1], u[2], u[3], q(x) ]
Then make a function that shoots with experimental initial conditions and returns the components of the second boundary condition
def shoot(u01, u03): return odeint(ODEfunc, [0, u01, 0, u03], [0, l])[-1,[0,2]]
Now you have a function of two variables with two components and you need to solve this 2x2 system with the usual methods. As the system is linear, the shooting function is linear as well and you only need to find the coefficients and solve the resulting linear system.

Extract parameter after fitting from Poisson distribution

I am a bit confused in the Poisson distribution. Actually I am fitting a Poisson type distribution and the I need to extract its mean and error on mean. So as we know the Poisson distribution is
In root (C/c++ based analysis framework) I defined this function like below
function = ( [0] * Power( [1] / [2] , x/[2] ) * exp (-[1]/[2]) ) / Gamma(x/[2] + 1)
Where : [0] = Normalizing parameter
[1] / [2] -> mean (mu)
x / [2] -> x
Gamma( x / [2] + 1 ) = factorial (x / [2])
So, In principle then mean of Poisson distribution is mu = 1/2 and error will be the standard deviation which is square root of mean.
But, If I am using this value then my mean is coming around 10 and hence error is ~3.
While the mean of distribution is around 2 (as we can see) so I am confused. Because the parameter 1 's value is coming out to around 2 or 3. So, should I use parameter 1 as mean value or what??
Please suggest what should I use and why?
My Full code is below:
TH1F *hClusterSize = new TH1F("hClusterSize","Cluster size for GE1/1", 10,0.,10.);
tmpTree->Draw("g1ycl.ngeoch>>hClusterSize","g1ycl#.GetEntries()==1 && g1xcl#.GetEntries()==1");
hClusterSize->GetXaxis()->SetTitle("Cluster Size");
hClusterSize->GetYaxis()->SetTitle("#Entries");
TF1 *f1 = new TF1("f1","[0]*TMath::Power(([1]/[2]),(x/[2]))*(TMath::Exp(-([1]/[2])))/TMath::Gamma((x/[2])+1)", 0, 10);
f1->SetParameters(hClusterSize->GetMaximum(), hClusterSize->GetMean(), 1);
hClusterSize->Fit("f1"); // Use option "R" = fit between "xmin" and "xmax" of the "f1"
On the root command line fitting a poisson distribution can be done like this:
TF1* func = new TF1("mypoi","[0]*TMath::Poisson(x,[1])",0,20)
func->SetParameter(0,5000) // set starting values
func->SetParameter(1,2.) // set starting values
func->SetParName(0,"Normalisation")
func->SetParName(1,"#mu")
TH1F* hist = new TH1F("hist","hist",20,-0.5,19.5)
for (int i = 0 ; i < 5000 ; i++) { hist->Fill(gRandom->Poisson(3.5)); }
hist->Draw()
hist->Fit(func)
Note that that bin centers are shifted wrt your initial post, such that the bin
center of 0 counts is at 0 and not at 0.5 (and the same for all the other bins).

Stata seemingly not actually rounding with round()

Stata has a round() function. One can select the units it rounds to. I want to round an arbitrary floating point value to two decimal places using round(ArbitraryValue, 0.01). Stata's display seems to understand this. But somehow the internal representation of round(ArbitraryValue, 0.01) still has the unrounded floating point value:
. local LevelA = 99.98765432123321
. ttest mpg==20, level(`LevelA') <BR>
level() can have at most two digits after the decimal point <BR>
r(198);
. local LevelB = round(`LevelA',0.01)
. di `LevelB' <BR>
99.99
. ttest mpg==20, level(`LevelB') <BR>
level() must be between 10 and 99.99 inclusive <BR>
r(198);
. set trace on
. ttest mpg==20, level(`LevelB') <BR>
[SNIP]<BR>
= local 0 mpg = 20, level(**99.99000000000001**) <BR>
[SNIP] <BR>
r(198);
What am I not understanding about how to correctly round?
You are being bitten by a basic fact. You want to see exact decimals, but Stata doesn't use exact decimals here; it necessarily calculates in binary. Much ingenuity at several levels hides this from you most of the time, but occasionally it breaks through to the surface.
round() can't possibly find an exact binary representation of 99.99 because there isn't one. The same applies to any multiple or fraction of 0.1(0.1)0.9 except for some multiples or fractions of 0.5.
In that sense, only exceptionally can round() do what you expect, produce an exact multiple of 0.01.
The calculations induced by display are not an exception to this principle; it's just that default display formats usually hide the ugly truth from you.
What you want is in fact a string manipulation, namely display with a specified format such as %3.2f which will guarantee that Stata thinks it is seeing two decimal places.
. sysuse auto, clear
(1978 Automobile Data)
. local LevelA = 99.98765432123321
. local myLevelA : di %3.2f `LevelA'
. ttest mpg == 20, level(`mylevelA')
One-sample t test
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Variable | Obs Mean Std. Err. Std. Dev. [95% Conf. Interval]
---------+--------------------------------------------------------------------
mpg | 74 21.2973 .6725511 5.785503 19.9569 22.63769
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
mean = mean(mpg) t = 1.9289
Ho: mean = 20 degrees of freedom = 73
Ha: mean < 20 Ha: mean != 20 Ha: mean > 20
Pr(T < t) = 0.9712 Pr(|T| > |t|) = 0.0576 Pr(T > t) = 0.0288
search precision to find out more.
If you really need to change the values
local Var " Var1 Var2 " // Variables
local dp = 2 // Number of decimals
foreach Var in `Var' {
gen `Var'_`dp'dp = (floor((`Var'*(10^`dp'))/1))/(10^`dp')
replace `Var'_`dp'dp = `Var'_`dp'dp + 1/(10^`dp') if `Var' - (floor((`Var'*(10^`dp'))/1))/(10^`dp') >= 5/(10^(2+1)) & `Var'!=.
}

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