I have been given a table with retention rates starting from day 1 to day 364. I have been given a current DAU count of 600k with a degradation rate of 2% per week(I am assuming current DAU means DAU on Day 1. The other information includes a count of daily acquired new users which is 10k.
The problem is to forecast/predict users on day 365.
What would be the best way to approach this problem?
I don't know whether my approach is correct but below is what I am thinking.
Step 1: Starting from a count of 600k on day one add 10 k users each day. On day 8 deduct 2% from day 7 count and perform the same operation till day 364.
Step 2: For the retention rates. Say day 1 - 100%, 2-60%, 3-40%, 4-30%...day 364-1%. Calculate DAU using values in Step 1 and run a cumlative sum using the retention rates.
Example:
Day 1 - 600,000 * 100 %
Day 2 - 600,000 * 60% + 610,000 * 100%
Day 3 - 600,000 * 40% + 610,000 * 60% + 620,000 * 100%
and so on
Once I have the DAU from Day 1 to Day 364 use Time series forecasting and predict the DAU for Day 365.
Thank you!
Adheip
Let :
A1 = day
B1 = RR
C1 = no of users
A2 = 0
B2 = 100%
C2 = 600000
E1 = 0
F1 = 1
G1 = 2
H1 = 3
I1 = 4
J1 = 5
K1 = 6
L1 = 7
M1 = 8
N1 = 9
O1 = 10
P1 = 11
Q1 = 12
R1 = 13
with
D2 =SUM(E2:R2)
drag until D16,
C3 =C2+10000
drag until C16, and
E2 =IF(E$1>$A2,0,INDEX($C:$C,MATCH(E$1,$A:$A,0)))*INDEX($B:$B,MATCH(E$1,$A:$A,0))
drag until R16.
Hope that helps. (:
Related
Let's say the yearly simple interest is 10% on a principal of $100. At the end of one year, the new principal is $110. I'm trying to calculate the compound interest equivalent so by the end of the 4th quarter, the new principal should still be $110. In the example below, I'm compounding quarterly (which is incorrect) and I'm ending up with $110.38. How do I modify the formula so I end up at $110?
With your current setup:
In B5: =B2*(1+B1)^(1/4)
In B6 and drag down: =B5*(1+B$1)^(1/4).
This is technically maths rather than programming but, since Excel is a crossover, we can possibly let it through :-)
The formula for calculating initial capital plus cumulative interest on an amount of b at r% per period over n periods is:
newb = b * (1 + r/100)n
Hence, the formula for getting 10% per year with quarterly interest over that year is (using 1.1, since newb must be 10% higher than b):
1.1 = (1 + r/100)4
So, let's just give the expression 1 + r/100 the term mult for now, and we can work out the rate from that later:
mult^4 = 1.1
=> mult = ∜(1.1)
=> mult = 1.024113 (roughly)
We can then calculate that the desired interest rate is 2.4113% (by starting with mult, subtracting one, then multiplying by a hundred).
And here's the table to prove it (interest values are rouned):
Current New
Balance Interest Balance
------- -------- -------
100.00 2.41 102.41
102.41 2.47 104.88
104.88 2.53 107.41
107.41 2.59 110.00
-----
10.00
You can see that you reach the 10% increase at the end of the fourth quarter.
In Excel, assuming A1 holds the desired annual interest rate (like 10) and B1 holds the number of periods in a year (like 4), you can calculate the periodic interest rate with:
= 100 * (power (1 + a1 / 100, 1 / b1) - 1)
as per the following screenshot (which also has the four quarterly calculations):
The formulae for the tabular cells are, if you're interested:
+ A + B + C
3 | 100 | =ROUND(a3*$c$1/100,2) | =a3+b3
4 | =c3 | =ROUND(a3*$c$1/100,2) | =a4+b4
5 | =c4 | =ROUND(a3*$c$1/100,2) | =a5+b5
6 | =c5 | =ROUND(a3*$c$1/100,2) | =a6+b6
Feel free to use them as you see fit.
Good Afternoon All
Its been a long time since I've used Excel and have become stuck and I hope you can help
Column O3 = 3
Column P3 = 4
Column Q3 = =IF(P3<=O3,MAX(0),IF(P3>=O3,MIN(2),IF(P2=O2+1,MAX(1))))
If PAR = 3 (O3) then if I score 3 or less (P3) I want to show 0 (Q3), if I score 4 I want Q3 to show 1 (Q3), If i score 5 or above I want to show 2 (Q3)
Thanks
Wayne
Wyane,
I think your macro must be like this :
=IF(P3<=O3,0,IF(P3=(O3+1),1,2))
If P3 <= O3 = 0
If P3 = O3+1 = 1
Else 2 (score 5 and above)
I need to calculate how many more tickets i need to meet the target percentage. Let me try to explain with an example.
Lets assume I have below data -
Tickets Met - 27
Tickets Missed - 3
Total Tickets - 30
Met % - 90%
Target % - 95%
So i want to know how many more tickets should i met to reach 95% (where my missed count will not change)
I suggest following below formula:
Lets assume Tickets_to_be_met = x,
x = (0.95 * Total_Tickets) - Current_Tickets
My formula is based on simple Maths(Percentage) calculation:
Considering your example: ((27 + x) / 30) * 100 = 95
where
27 = Current_Tickets,
30 = Total_Tickets
EDIT
In Excel,
Try using =((95*B1)-(A1*100))/5 Where B column contains Total_tickets and A column contains Current_tickets
Considering the Formula: (27 + x) / (30 + x) = 95 / 100
Hope it helps!
Assuming you know your total tickets and current tickets met
Total tickets: 30
Tickets met: 27
You want to additionally add tickets such that your tickets met is 95% of total tickets
(Current_tickets_met + x)/(Total_tickets + x) = 95%
(27+x)/(30+x) = 95/100
This resolves x to be of value 30
Which means, if you additionally add 30 tickets
Current tickets met = 27+30 = 57
Total tickets met = 30+30 = 60
And 57/60 = 95%
I'm doing a sales forecast and want to project what a 10% growth would be from month 1 to month 24.
For example if month 1 = 100 and a 10% growth for month 24 = 110.
The spreadsheet is laid out like this:
B C D Y
2 Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 ... Month 24
3 100 110
What function would I use to populate columns C3 though X3? say
Thanks!
let us consider following example
Example: Invest $2,000 now, receive 3 yearly payments of $100 each, plus $2,500 in the 3rd year. Use 10% Interest Rate.
Let us work year by year (remembering to subtract what you pay out):
Now: PV = -$2,000
Year 1: PV = $100 / 1.10 = $90.91
Year 2: PV = $100 / 1.102 = $82.64
Year 3: PV = $100 / 1.103 = $75.13
Year 3 (final payment): PV = $2,500 / 1.103 = $1,878.29
Adding those up gets: NPV = -$2,000 + $90.91 + $82.64 + $75.13 + $1,878.29 = $126.97
Looks like a good investment.
i have tried to calculate same in excel
10%
100
100
100
2500
-2000
=NPV(A1,A2,A3,A4,A5)+A6
and got (43.78),why?please help me
You need to net your final year - 100 + 2500
The NPV function assumes each cell value is the money recieved at the end of its own year.
It is assuming that you are getting the 2500 a year after the last 100 dollar payment.
try this instead:
100
100
2600
NPV(.10,100,100,2600)-2000 = ~126.97