I am applying a causal method to a cohort study analysis on pollutant exposure and disease X. Based on our understanding of the disease, we believe that aging is the only confounder.
From what I understand, age would be the item in our minimally sufficient set required to evaluate the outcome/exposure relationship.
Assuming all other causal assumptions are met, does the minimally sufficient set represent the only variable that should be included in the model outside of the exposure?
Could I still include covariates like smoking history and gender that effect the outcome versus age which effects the outcome and the exposure?
Please help! I can’t seem to find anything conclusive online. I want to include the other covariates because I feel their effect sizes contextualize the effect of the exposure.
Yes, you can add additional variables to your analysis. They will either be good, neutral, or bad, depending on the causal structure of your problem.
I strongly recommend the paper A Crash Course in Good and Bad Controls by Cinelli, Forney, and Pearl, for a comprehensive classification of possible cases.
Your description of gender and smoking status affecting only the outcome seems to comply with model 8 in the paper. These are, in general, good variables to add, since they will help explaining the variance of the outcome, therefore reducing the variance left for the treatment to explain - practically increasing the precision of the treatment effect estimation.
I am confused to get the context on biases in the following line (marked in bold):
Information gain ratio biases the decision tree against considering attributes with a large number of distinct values which might lead to overfitting.
Did you mean Information gain, as information gain is bias towards variables with large distinct values and information gain ratio is tries to solve this by taking into account the number of branches that would result before making the split, It corrects information gain by taking the intrinsic information of a split into account.
Answer for why information gain is biased towards variables with large distinct values
Please note that information gain (IG) is biased toward variables with large number of distinct values not variables that have observations with large values. Before describing the reason of this condition, lets review the definition of IG.
Information gain is the amount of information that's gained by knowing the value of the attribute, which is the entropy of the distribution before the split minus the entropy of the distribution after it. The largest information gain is equivalent to the smallest entropy.
In other words, a variable with the highest number of distinct values probability can divide data to smaller chunks. Also, we know that lower number of observations in each chunk reduces probability of variation occurrence.
Using ID variable in splitting data is a common example for this issue. Since each individual sample has their own distinct value, selecting ID features leads to many clusters with one sample and entropy of zero. Therefore, a decision tree that works with IG, selects the ID as the first separator attribute. Indeed, entropy will approach to zero by selecting the ID feature. However, we are not interested to such a feature. We are more interested to features that highly explain the variation of dependent variable.
Please refer to this discussion where this point was initially written.
I'm doing a small research project where I should try to split financial news articles headers to positive and negative classes.For classification I'm using SVM approach.The main problem which I see now it that not a lot of features can be produced for ML. News articles contains a lot of Named Entities and other "garbage" elements (from my point of view of course).
Could you please suggest ML features which can be used for ML training? Current results are: precision =0.6, recall=0.8
Thanks
The task is not trivial at all.
The straightforward approach would be to find or create a training set. That is a set of headers with positive news and a set of headers with negative news.
You turn the training set to a TF/IDF representation and then you train a Linear SVM to separate the two classes. Depending on the quality and size of your training set you can achieve something decent - not sure for 0.7 break even point.
Then, to get better results you need to go for NLP approaches. Try use a part-of-speech tagger to identify adjectives (trivial), and then score them using some sentiment DB like SentiWordNet.
There is an excellent overview on Sentiment Analysis by Bo Pang and Lillian Lee you should read:
How about these features?
Length of article header in words
Average word length
Number of words in a dictionary of "bad" words, e.g. dictionary = {terrible, horrible, downturn, bankruptcy, ...}. You may have to generate this dictionary yourself.
Ratio of words in that dictionary to total words in sentence
Similar to 3, but number of words in a "good" dictionary of words, e.g. dictionary = {boon, booming, employment, ...}
Similar to 5, but use the "good"-word dictionary
Time of the article's publication
Date of the article's publication
The medium through which it was published (you'll have to do some subjective classification)
A count of certain punctuation marks, such as the exclamation point
If you're allowed access to the actual article, you could use surface features from the actual article, such as its total length and perhaps even the number of responses or the level of opposition to that article. You could also look at many other dictionaries online such as Ogden's 850 basic english dictionary, and see if bad/good articles would be likely to extract many words from those. I agree that it seems difficult to come up with a long list (e.g. 100 features) of useful features for this purpose.
iliasfl is right, this is not a straightforward task.
I would use a bag of words approach but use a POS tagger first to tag each word in the headline. Then you could remove all of the named entities - which as you rightly point out don't affect the sentiment. Other words should appear frequently enough (if your dataset is big enough) to cancel themselves out from being polarised as either positive or negative.
One step further along, if you still aren't close could be to only select the adjectives and verbs from the tagged data as they are the words that tend to convey the emotion or mood.
I wouldn't be too disheartened in your precision and recall figures though, an F number of 0.8 and above is actually quite good.
I want to use machine learning to identify the signature of a user who converts to a subscriber of a website given their behavior over time.
Let's say my website has 6 different features which can be used before subscribing and users can convert to a subscriber at any time.
For a given user I have stats which represent the intensity on a continuous range of that user's interaction with features 1-6 on a daily basis so:
D1: f1,f2,f3,f4,f5,f6
D2: f1,f2,f3,f4,f5,f6
D3: f1,f2,f3,f4,f5,f6
D4: f1,f2,f3,f4,f5,f6
Let's say on day 5, the user converts.
What machine using algorithms would help me identify which are the most common patterns in feature usage which lead to a conversion?
(I know this is a super basic classification question, but I couldn't find a good example using longitudinal data, where input vectors are ordered by time like I have)
To develop the problem further, let's assume that each feature has 3 intensities at which the user can interact (H, M, L).
We can then represent each user as a string of states of interaction intensity. So, for a user:
LLLLMM LLMMHH LLHHHH
Would mean on day one they only interacted significantly with features 5 and 6, but by the third day they were interacting highly with features 3 through 6.
N-gram Style
I could make these states words and the lifetime of a user a sentence. (Would probably need to add a "conversion" word to the vocabulary as well)
If I ran these "sentences" through an n-gram model, I could get the likely future state of a user given his/her past few state which is somewhat interesting. But, what I really want to know the most common sets of n-grams that lead to the conversion word. Rather than feeding in an n-gram and getting the next predicted word, I want to give the predicted word and get back the 10 most common n-grams (from my data) which would be likely to lead to the word.
Amaç Herdağdelen suggests identifying n-grams to practical n and then counting how many n-gram states each user has. Then correlating with conversion data (I guess no conversion word in this example). My concern is that there would be too many n-grams to make this method practical. (if each state has 729 possibilities, and we're using trigrams, thats a lot of possible trigrams!)
Alternatively, could I just go thru the data logging the n-grams which led to the conversion word and then run some type of clustering on them to see what the common paths are to a conversion?
Survival Style
Suggested by Iterator, I understand the analogy to a survival problem, but the literature here seems to focus on predicting time to death as opposed to the common sequence of events which leads to death. Further, when looking up the Cox Proportional Hazard model, I found that it does not event accommodate variables which change over time (its good for differentiating between static attributes like gender and ethnicity)- so it seems very much geared toward a different question than mine.
Decision Tree Style
This seems promising though I can't completely wrap my mind around how to structure the data. Since the data is not flat, is the tree modeling the chance of moving from one state to another down the line and when it leads to conversion or not? This is very different than the decision tree data literature I've been able to find.
Also, need clarity on how to identify patterns which lead to conversion instead a models predicts likely hood of conversion after a given sequence.
Theoretically, hidden markov models may be a suitable solution to your problem. The features on your site would constitute the alphabet, and you can use the sequence of interactions as positive or negative instances depending on whether a user finally subscribed or not. I don't have a guess about what the number of hidden states should be, but finding a suitable value for that parameter is part of the problem, after all.
As a side note, positive instances are trivial to identify, but the fact that a user has not subscribed so far doesn't necessarily mean s/he won't. You might consider to limit your data to sufficiently old users.
I would also consider converting the data to fixed-length vectors and apply conceptually simpler models that could give you some intuition about what's going on. You could use n-grams (consecutive interaction sequences of length n).
As an example, assuming that the interaction sequence of a given user ise "f1,f3,f5", "f1,f3,f5" would constitute a 3-gram (trigram). Similarly, for the same user and the same interaction sequence you would have "f1,f3" and "f3,f5" as the 2-grams (bigrams). In order to represent each user as a vector, you would identify all n-grams up to a practical n, and count how many times the user employed a given n-gram. Each column in the vector would represent the number of times a given n-gram is observed for a given user.
Then -- probably with the help of some suitable normalization techniques such as pointwise mutual information or tf-idf -- you could look at the correlation between the n-grams and the final outcome to get a sense of what's going on, carry out feature selection to find the most prominent sequences that users are involved in, or apply classification methods such as nearest neighbor, support machine or naive Bayes to build a predictive model.
This is rather like a survival analysis problem: over time the user will convert or will may drop out of the population, or will continue to appear in the data and not (yet) fall into neither camp. For that, you may find the Cox proportional hazards model useful.
If you wish to pursue things from a different angle, namely one more from the graphical models perspective, then a Kalman Filter may be more appealing. It is a generalization of HMMs, suggested by #AmaçHerdağdelen, which work for continuous spaces.
For ease of implementation, I'd recommend the survival approach. It is the easiest to analyze, describe, and improve. After you have a firm handle on the data, feel free to drop in other methods.
Other than Markov chains, I would suggest decision trees or Bayesian networks. Both of these would give you a likely hood of a user converting after a sequence.
I forgot to mention this earlier. You may also want to take a look at the Google PageRank algorithm. It would help you account for the user completely disappearing [not subscribing]. The results of that would help you to encourage certain features to be used. [Because they're more likely to give you a sale]
I think Ngramm is most promising approach, because all sequnce in data mining are treated as elements depndent on few basic steps(HMM, CRF, ACRF, Markov Fields) So I will try to use classifier based on 1-grams and 2 -grams.
I am trying to understand what is the relevance score that opencalais returns associated with each entity? What does it signify and how is it to be interpreted? I would be thankful for insights into this.
Their documentation states: The relevance capability detects the importance of each unique entity and assigns a relevance score in the range 0-1 (1 being the most relevant and important).
While they do not explain what 'relevance' means exactly, one would expect it to quantify the centrality of the entity to the discourse of the document. It's likely influenced by factors such as the entities mention frequency in this document as compared to its expected frequency in a random document (cf. TF-IDF), but could also involve more sophisticated discourse analysis.