I am using the package scikit-learn to compute a logistic regression on a moderately large data set (300k rows, 2k cols. That's pretty large to me!).
Now, since scikit-learn does not produce confidence intervals, I am calculating them myself. To do so, I need to compute and invert the Hessian matrix of the logistic function evaluated at the minimum. Since scikit-learn already computes the Hessian while optimizing, it'd be efficient if I could retrieve it.
In sklearn.classification.LogisticRegression, Is there any way to retrieve the Hessian evaluated at the minimum value?
Note: This is an intermediate step, and I actually only need the diagonal entries of the inverse of the Hessian. If anyone has a more straightforward way to get there, I'd love to learn it.
Related
I have a particular classification problem that I was able to improve using Python's abs() function. I am still somewhat new when it comes to machine learning, and I wanted to know if what I am doing is actually "allowed," so to speak, for improving a regression problem. The following line describes my method:
lr = linear_model.LinearRegression()
predicted = abs(cross_val_predict(lr, features, labels_postop_IS, cv=10))
I attempted this solution because linear regression can sometimes produce negative predictions values, even though my particular case, these predictions should never be negative, as they are a physical quantity.
Using the abs() function, my predictions produce a better fit for the data.
Is this allowed?
Why would it not be "allowed". I mean if you want to make certain statistical statements (like a 95% CI e.g.) you need to be careful. However, most ML practitioners do not care too much about underlying statistical assumptions and just want a blackbox model that can be evaluated based on accuracy or some other performance metric. So basically everything is allowed in ML, you just have to be careful not to overfit. Maybe a more sensible solution to your problem would be to use a function that truncates at 0 like f(x) = x if x > 0 else 0. This way larger negative values don't suddenly become large positive ones.
On a side note, you should probably try some other models as well with more parameters like a SVR with a non-linear kernel. The thing is obviously that a LR fits a line, and if this line is not parallel to your x-axis (thinking in the single variable case) it will inevitably lead to negative values at some point on the line. That's one reason for why it is often advised not to use LRs for predictions outside the "fitted" data.
A straight line y=a+bx will predict negative y for some x unless a>0 and b=0. Using logarithmic scale seems natural solution to fix this.
In the case of linear regression, there is no restriction on your outputs.
If your data is non-negative (as in your case the values are physical quantities and cannot be negative), you could model using a generalized linear model (GLM) with a log link function. This is known as Poisson regression and is helpful for modeling discrete non-negative counts such as the problem you described. The Poisson distribution is parameterized by a single value λ, which describes both the expected value and the variance of the distribution.
I cannot say your approach is wrong but a better way is to go towards the above method.
This results in an approach that you are attempting to fit a linear model to the log of your observations.
I am pretty new to Tensorflow, and I am currently learning it through given website https://www.tensorflow.org/get_started/get_started
It is said in the manual that:
We've created a model, but we don't know how good it is yet. To evaluate the model on training data, we need a y placeholder to provide the desired values, and we need to write a loss function.
A loss function measures how far apart the current model is from the provided data. We'll use a standard loss model for linear regression, which sums the squares of the deltas between the current model and the provided data. linear_model - y creates a vector where each element is the corresponding example's error delta. We call tf.square to square that error. Then, we sum all the squared errors to create a single scalar that abstracts the error of all examples using tf.reduce_sum:"
q1."we don't know how good it is yet.", I didn't understand this
quote as the simple model created is a simple slope equation and on
what it should train for?, as the model is a simple slope. Is it
require an perfect slope or what? why am I training that model and
for what?
q2.what is a loss function? Is loss function is used to determine the
accuracy of the model? Why is it required?
q3. I didn't understand " 'sums the squares of the deltas' between
the current model and the provided data."
q4.I didn't understood this part of code,"squared_deltas =
tf.square(linear_model - y)
this is the code:
y = tf.placeholder(tf.float32)
squared_deltas = tf.square(linear_model - y)
loss = tf.reduce_sum(squared_deltas)
print(sess.run(loss, {x:[1,2,3,4], y:[0,-1,-2,-3]}))
this may be simple questions, but I am a beginner to Tensorflow and having a hard time understanding it.
1) So you're kind of right about "Why should we train for a simple problem" but this is just an introduction piece. With any machine learning task you need to evaluate your model to see how good it is. In this case you are just trying to train to find the coefficients for the line of best fit.
2) A loss function in any machine learning context represents your error with your model. This usually means a function of your "distance" of your calculated value to the ground truth value. Think of it as an internal evaluation score. You want to minimise your loss so the gradients and parameter changes are based on your loss.
3/4) Your question here is more to do with least square regression. It's a statistical method to create lines of best fit between points. The deltas represent the differences between your calculated values and the truth values. The aim is to minimise the area of the squares and hence minise the error and have a better line of best fit.
What you are doing in this Tensorflow example is creating a machine learning model that will learn the coefficients for the line of best fit automatically using a least squares based system.
Pretty much all of your question have to-do with the loss function.
The loss function is a function that determines how far apart your output are from the expected (correct) output.
It has two usages:
Help the algorithm determine if the tweaking of the weight is helping going in the good or bad direction
Determinate the accuracy (~the number of time your system guesses the correct answer)
The loss function is the sum of the deltas witch is: the addition of the diff (delta) between the expected output and the actual output.
I think It's squared to magnifies the error the algorithm makes.
I would like to fit a regression model to probabilities. I am aware that linear regression is often used for this purpose, but I have several probabilities at or near 0.0 and 1.0 and would like to fit a regression model where the output is constrained to lie between 0.0 and 1.0. I want to be able to specify a regularization norm and strength for the model and ideally do this in python (but an R implementation would be helpful as well). All the logistic regression packages I've found seem to be only suited for classification whereas this is a regression problem (albeit one where I want to use the logit link function). I use scikits-learn for my classification and regression needs so if this regression model can be implemented in scikits-learn, that would be fantastic (it seemed to me that this is not possible), but I'd be happy about any solution in python and/or R.
The question has two issues, penalized estimation and fractional or proportions data as dependent variable. I worked on each separately but never tried the combination.
Penalization
Statsmodels has had L1 regularized Logit and other discrete models like Poisson for some time. In recent months there has been a lot of effort to support more penalization but it is not in statsmodels yet. Elastic net for linear and Generalized Linear Model (GLM) is in a pull request and will be merged soon. More penalized GLM like L2 penalization for GAM and splines or SCAD penalization will follow over the next months based on pull requests that still need work.
Two examples for the current L1 fit_regularized for Logit are here
Difference in SGD classifier results and statsmodels results for logistic with l1 and https://github.com/statsmodels/statsmodels/blob/master/statsmodels/examples/l1_demo/short_demo.py
Note, the penalization weight alpha can be a vector with zeros for coefficients like the constant if they should not be penalized.
http://www.statsmodels.org/dev/generated/statsmodels.discrete.discrete_model.Logit.fit_regularized.html
Fractional models
Binary and binomial models in statsmodels do not impose that the dependent variable is binary and work as long as the dependent variable is in the [0,1] interval.
Fractions or proportions can be estimated with Logit as Quasi-maximum likelihood estimator. The estimates are consistent if the mean function, logistic, cumulative normal or similar link function, is correctly specified but we should use robust sandwich covariance for proper inference. Robust standard errors can be obtained in statsmodels through a fit keyword cov_type='HC0'.
Best documentation is for Stata http://www.stata.com/manuals14/rfracreg.pdf and the references therein. I went through those references before Stata had fracreg, and it works correctly with at least Logit and Probit which were my test cases. (I don't find my scripts or test cases right now.)
The bad news for inference is that robust covariance matrices have not been added to fit_regularized, so the correct sandwich covariance is not directly available. The standard covariance matrix and standard errors of the parameter estimates are derived under the assumption that the model, i.e. the likelihood function, is correctly specified, which will not be the case if the data are fractions and not binary.
Besides using Quasi-Maximum Likelihood with binary models, it is also possible to use a likelihood that is defined for fractional data in (0, 1). A popular model is Beta regression, which is also waiting in a pull request for statsmodels and is expected to be merged within the next months.
I have data which has an associated binary outcome variable. Naturally I ran a logistic regression in order to see parameter estimates and odds ratios. I was curious though, to change this data from a binary outcome to count data. Then I ran a poisson regression (and negative binomial regression) on the count data.
I have no idea of how to compare these different models though, all comparisons I see seem to only be concerned with nested models.
How would you go about deciding on the best model to use in this situation?
Essentially both models will be roughly equal. What really matters is what is your objective- what you really want to predict. If you want to determine how many of cases are good or bad (1 or 0), then you go for logistic regression. If you are really interested on how much the cases are going to do (counts) then do poisson.
In other words, the only difference between these two models is the logistic transformation and the fact that logistic regression tries to minimize the misclassification error (-2 log likelihood) .To put it simply, even if you run a linear regression (OLS) on the binary outcome, you should not see big differences from your logistic model apart from the fact that the results may not be between 0 and 1 (e.g. the Area under the RoC curve will be similar to the logistic model) .
To sum up, don't worry about which of these two models is better, they should be roughly the same in the way the capture your features' information. Just think what makes more sense to optimize, counts or probabilties. The answer might have been different if you were considering non-linear models (e.g random forests or neural networks etc), but the two you are considering are both (almost) linear- so don't worry about it.
One thing to consider is the sample design. If you are using a case-control study, then logistic regression is the way to go because of its logit link function, rather than log of ratios as in Poisson regression. This is because, where there is an oversampling of cases such as in case-control study, odds ratio is unbiased.
I am working with sklearn's implementation of KNN. While my input data has about 20 features, I believe some of the features are more important than others. Is there a way to:
set the feature weights for each feature when "training" the KNN learner.
learn what the optimal weight values are with or without pre-processing the data.
On a related note, I understand generally KNN does not require training but since sklearn implements it using KDTrees, the tree must be generated from the training data. However, this sounds like its turning KNN into a binary tree problem. Is that the case?
Thanks.
kNN is simply based on a distance function. When you say "feature two is more important than others" it usually means difference in feature two is worth, say, 10x difference in other coords. Simple way to achive this is by multiplying coord #2 by its weight. So you put into the tree not the original coords but coords multiplied by their respective weights.
In case your features are combinations of the coords, you might need to apply appropriate matrix transform on your coords before applying weights, see PCA (principal component analysis). PCA is likely to help you with question 2.
The answer to question to is called "metric learning" and currently not implemented in Scikit-learn. Using the popular Mahalanobis distance amounts to rescaling the data using StandardScaler. Ideally you would want your metric to take into account the labels.