Multivariate Sample Variance and Covariance - statistics

When calculating sample variances and covariances from the data matrix, When do we divide by n and when do we divide by n-1.

When your sample is the population, divide by n. Otherwise, divide by n-1 because you are losing one degree of freedom in estimating mean from the same sample.
For large samples this should make hardly any difference.

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Confusion matrix 5x5 formula for finding accuracy, precision, recall ,and f1-score

im try to study confusion matrix. i know about 2x2 confusion matrix but i still don't understand how to count 5x5 confusion matrix for finding accuracy, precision, recall and, f1 - score. Can anyone help me with this ? i appreciate every help.
See my answer here: Calculating Equal error rate(EER) for a multi class classification problem
In short, one strategy is to split the multiclass problem into a set of binary classification, for each class a "one vs. all others" classification. Then for each binary problem you can calculate F1, precision and recall, and if you want you can average (uniformly or weighted) the scores of each class to get one F1 score which will represent the multiclass problem.
As for confusion matrix larger than 2x2: the rows are the true labels and the columns are predicated labels. Then the number in cell (i,j) is the number of samples from class i which were classified as class j (note that i=j corresponds to correct prediction). The accuracy is the trace of the confusion matrix divided by the number of samples.

90% Confidence ellipsoid of 3 dimensinal data

i did get to know confidence ellipses during university (but that has been some semesters ago).
In my current project, I'd like to calculate a 3 dimensional confidence ellipse/ellipsoid in which I can set the probability of success to e.g. 90%. The center of the data is shifted from zero.
At the moment i am calculating the variance-covariance matrix of the dataset and from it its eigenvalues and eigenvectors which i then represent as an ellipsoid.
here, however, I am missing the information on the probability of success, which I cannot specify.
What is the correct way to calculate a confidence ellipsoid with e.g. 90% probability of success ?

Gaussian Mixture model log-likelihood to likelihood-Sklearn

I want to calculate the likelihoods instead of log-likelihoods. I know that score gives per sample average log-likelihood and for that I need to multiply score with sample size but the log likelihoods are very large negative numbers such as -38567258.1157 and when I take np.exp(scores) , I get a zero. Any help is appreciated.
gmm=GaussianMixture(covariance_type="diag",n_components=2)
y_pred=gmm.fit_predict(X_test)
scores=gmm.score(X_test)

Weighted Least Squares vs Monte Carlo comparison

I have an experimental dataset of the following values (y, x1, x2, w), where y is the measured quantity, x1 and x2 are the two independet variables and w is the error of each measurement.
The function I've chosen to describe my data is
These are my tasks:
1) Estimate values of bi
2) Estimate their standard errors
3) Calculate predicted values of f(x1, x2) on a mesh grid and estimate their confidence intervals
4) Calculate predicted values of
and definite integral
and their confidence intervals on a mesh grid
I have several questions:
1) Can all of my tasks be solved by weighted least squares? I've solved task 1-3 using WLS in matrix form by linearisation of the chosen function, but I have no idea, how to solve step №4.
2) I've performed Monte Carlo simulations to estimate bi and their s.e. I've generated perturbated values y'i from normal distribution with mean yi and standard deviation wi. I did this operation N=5000 times. For each perturbated dataset I estimated b'i, and from 5000 values of b'i I calculated mean values and their standard distribution. In the end, bi estimated from Monte-Carlo simulation coincide with those found by WLS. Am I correct, that standard deviations of b'i must be devided by № of Degrees of freedom to obtain standard error?
3) How to estimate confidence bands for predicted values of y using Monte-Carlo approach? I've generated a bunch of perturbated bi values from normal distribution using their BLUE as mean and standard deviations. Then I calculated lots of predicted values of f(x1,x2), found their means and standard deviations. Values of f(x1,x2) found by WLS and MC coincide, but s.d. found from MC are 5-45 order higher than those from WLS. What is the scaling factor that I'm missing here?
4) It seems that some of parameters b are not independent of each other, since there are only 2 independent variables. Should I take this into account in question 3, when I generate bi values? If yes, how can this be done? Should I use Chi-squared test to decide whether generated values of bi are suitable for further calculations, or should they be rejected?
In fact, I not only want to solve tasks I've mentioned earlier, but also I want to compare the two methods for regression analysys. I would appreciate any help and suggestions!

Why Principle Components of Covariance matrix capture maximum variance of the variables?

I am trying to understand PCA, I went through several tutorials. So far I understand that, the eigenvectors of a matrix implies the directions in which vectors are rotated and scaled when multiplied by that matrix, in proportion of the eigenvalues. Hence the eigenvector associated with the maximum Eigen value defines direction of maximum rotation. I understand that along the principle component, the variations are maximum and reconstruction errors are minimum. What I do not understand is:
why finding the Eigen vectors of the covariance matrix corresponds to the axis such that the original variables are better defined with this axis?
In addition to tutorials, I reviewed other answers here including this and this. But still I do not understand it.
Your premise is incorrect. PCA (and eigenvectors of a covariance matrix) certainly don't represent the original data "better".
Briefly, the goal of PCA is to find some lower dimensional representation of your data (X, which is in n dimensions) such that as much of the variation is retained as possible. The upshot is that this lower dimensional representation is an orthogonal subspace and it's the best k dimensional representation (where k < n) of your data. We must find that subspace.
Another way to think about this: given a data matrix X find a matrix Y such that Y is a k-dimensional projection of X. To find the best projection, we can just minimize the difference between X and Y, which in matrix-speak means minimizing ||X - Y||^2.
Since Y is just a projection of X onto lower dimensions, we can say Y = X*v where v*v^T is a lower rank projection. Google rank if this doesn't make sense. We know Xv is a lower dimension than X, but we don't know what direction it points.
To do that, we find the v such that ||X - X*v*v^t||^2 is minimized. This is equivalent to maximizing ||X*v||^2 = ||v^T*X^T*X*v|| and X^T*X is the sample covariance matrix of your data. This is mathematically why we care about the covariance of the data. Also, it turns out that the v that does this the best, is an eigenvector. There is one eigenvector for each dimension in the lower dimensional projection/approximation. These eigenvectors are also orthogonal.
Remember, if they are orthogonal, then the covariance between any two of them is 0. Now think of a matrix with non-zero diagonals and zero's in the off-diagonals. This is a covariance matrix of orthogonal columns, i.e. each column is an eigenvector.
Hopefully that helps bridge the connection between covariance matrix and how it helps to yield the best lower dimensional subspace.
Again, eigenvectors don't better define our original variables. The axis determined by applying PCA to a dataset are linear combinations of our original variables that tend to exhibit maximum variance and produce the closest possible approximation to our original data (as measured by l2 norm).

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