am struggling with the application of goal seek function in excel. Am forecasting production for an oil well however we have a target cumulative production expected after say 20 years of production. I have produced table columns of monthly production rate and cumulative production. I would like to play (create sensitivity scenarios) with my expected cumulative production.
Can i use goal seek to change the production forecast profile per month by just changing the cumulative production at the end.
Also advise alternative functions should goal seek not be the right function for this task.
Appreciate your support
This is really just an example of what #DanK has already mentioned. Say ColumnB figures are actual production (in black) and estimates (in blue). The estimates in this case computed as number of days in the month times the factor in D1 ("daily production"). To ramp up production so that the total cumulative production (in the example below, for 1-1/2 years, rather than all 20 as in the example above), presently estimated to be 115,620 units is instead 150,000 then Goal Seek might be applied so:
whereupon the D1 value (200) should change to 287 (and the total in B19 to 150,000, and all the blue values change also). The principle should work if, say, June 2015 were calculated as 16*D1 rather than 30*D1 to allow for planned suspension of production. If that fortnight were an intervention to add production from another reservoir anticipated to be 100 per day then Goal Seek would not adjust "100 per day" but would adjust a new daily rate of 1.5*D1.
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I am trying to create a sampling plan for testing of raw materials. To provide some context, the criteria I am planning to factor in are the Priority level of the materials (e.g. P1 is the highest while P3 is the lowest), the delivery date of the material (Actual date of arrival), and the sampling capacity of each day (currently the capacity is at 30 SUs). If the sampling capacity of the day is exceeded, the date will be decided by back calculating using the lead times from the production need by date.
The main issue with the previous plan was that the dates were only planned around the priority level. This meant that regardless of the delivery date, whenever a new P1 item came in, it would push all the other lower priority items back, and create a backlog of untested items.
Using arbitrary values, if the material is P1, the date will be 12 days after the delivery date; P2, 13 days and P3, 14 days. After that, check if the sampling capacity is exceeded for the day. I tried to use Vlookup, but it only returns the first value rather than checking every row. I do not have Xlookup because I'm using Excel2016.
I want to create a code (either in VBA or excel) to factor in all these criteria to automatically plan a date.
The formula for sampling date based on just the priority level is =IF(C337="1", B337+12,IF(C337="2", B337+13,IF(C337="3",B337+14,""))), where C is the priority and B is the delivery date. This is what I currently have:
See below screenshot:
So, the point is, in my dataset I have to create a variable "Moving Avg. Amt paid per sq. ft." and the formula or the logic I need is to calculate the last five values as per most recent transactions. i.e. most recent sales by date. but this average should only return value in case it matches the same building and same area variable.
This is what my data looks like
Area ID has three categories. Building number has 5 categories. Date is sorted in ascending order. Now my variable moving average should calculate last 5 averages w.r.t date but for the same building in the same area. e.g. there are buildings 1 and 2 in area 102. I need my Mov Avg. variable to calculate using conditions when it matches criteria of building 1 in 102 for past five sales and when it finds building 2 in the building number variable, it should calculate average of last 5 sales of that building in area 102.
So my approach to this issue was (which is flawed at the moment):
I calculate average of amount paid per sq. foot w.r.t area & building based on dates using the formula
=AVERAGEIFS($N$2:$N$6547,$D$2:$D$6547,D14,$C$2:$C$6547,C14,$B$2:$B$6547,B14)
but I cannot make this formula work, to calculate moving average whenever it meets the criteria. I tried the offset the point as well by 5 but the logic is not right and hence its not working and returning #value in the cells. The formula I used to offset the above condition is
=AVERAGEIFS((OFFSET(N13,5,,5)),$D$2:$D$6547,D13,$C$2:$C$6547,C13,$B$2:$B$6547,B13)
(These formulae are used in column Q of my data)
Need a support from the community as I am badly stuck in making this data useful and I am out of any ideas to make this work.
Edit 1: I am not sure how I can attach my excel file here so you may review the dataset. I have uploaded it on a third party site, for which the link is shared below, so you can view the file in detail.
https://file.io/hlciAHJOHzWA
Expected result is as I have mentioned the instruction said
"Create a variable called "mov. avg amt. paid per sq ft". For each row, this variable should calculate average amt paid per sq ft for the most recent past five sales (by date) for the same building in the same area."
And my approach to build a logic or formula to make this variable calculate moving average w.r.t date for same building in the same area doesn't seem to work because there might be some flaws.
In Office 365 you could use:
=LET(f,FILTER($N$1:N13,($B$1:B13=B14)*($C$1:C13=C14),""),
c,COUNTA(f),
s,SEQUENCE(5,,c-5),
IFERROR(IF(c<5,SUM(f)/c,SUM(INDEX(f,s))/5),""))
If there's less than 5 matches prior to the current sales it'll calculate the average of the count. If 5 or more matches it'll calculate the average of the last 5 prior to the current sale.
I have set up an optimization problem but i must be doing something wrong and I could use your help. I have three firms: alpha, Bravo, Charlie. They each complete three tasks: Milling, Inspecting, Drilling. They each require different amounts of minutes to complete each task. Alpha requires 12 minutes to mill, 5 minutes to inspect and 10 minutes to drill. Bravo requires 10 minutes to mill, 4 to inspect, and 8 to drill. Charlie requires 8 to mill, 4 to inspect, and 16 to drill. After each firm completes all of these tasks they will earn a certain amount of profit, Alpha will earn $2.40, Bravo will earn $2.50, and Charlie will earn $3.00. All three firms have a maximum allotted time of 1200 minutes to mill, 900 to inspect, and 1440 to drill. The goal is to maximize the profit of these three firms. I have set it up so that the sums of the tasks will take away from the available time left when changed by the solver. I have also set constraints within the solver to cap each task to the allotted time allowed per task. I must be missing a vital step however because it keeps trying to just max out the allotted time for an individual firm, not taking in to account the opportunity cost of the other firms or something. Please help! (shown in photos)
Data
Solver
After executing Solver
I have changed the logic a bit different in order to take the minimum unit into consideration:
UNITS portion are the variable cells. Since the final produced unit will be the minimum of these cells, E9 formula is =MIN(B9:D9) and copied down.
TIME portion is multiplication of Unit Times and Units. So the formula of B14 is =B9*B2 and copied down & right.
I9:I11 are the earnings calculated by multiplying the unit earning with the minimum units
I12 is our total earning and is our Objective cell.
Please also be careful about the constraints since when you do not set an integer constrain, finding a solution becomes more difficult and of course our units should be integer in any case.
And also fill B9:D11 cells with some values such as 100, since otherwise iteration does not start correctly and solver ends up with a very small objective cell.
I have just had a go at this and I get a different answer as I have made the assumption that to achieve the profit the company must complete a milling process, then inspect, then drill and once all are complete then that is 1 unit for the profit - I hope that is valid.
But if not, then this layout may help you anyway. Note I have set this as a Linear model for the solver and also note the use of integer and non-negative.
It was fun anyway !
I am trying to recreate the formula from a trendline on a graph. basically my company is trying to predict the corn yields for next year. all of the actual programmers are out for the week so they passed it on to me(web developer:D). Ive attempted the LINEST formula multiple times with no luck.
basically in column B I have the years(1-15, trying to project 16) and Column C i have the actual trend data. i am probably doing this wrong however
EX =LINEST(C16:C30,B16:B30,FALSE,FALSE)
Any help would be appreciated. just tell me if you need the actual file or more information. Thanks in advance!
The fourth argument, concerning the return of additional regression statistics, is optional and is taken as FALSE if omitted, so seems not required for your purposes. The third argument, concerning the intercept with the Y-axis (the value of y when x is 0), is also optional but taken as TRUE if omitted. In your case TRUE seems appropriate so the third parameter seems not required for your purposes.
With your data spanning 15 years, if ending with the current year, it is conveniently 2001-2015 bdi and has no information about the value of y (production) in year 2000 (ie when x is 0) but this is unlikely to have been 0, as would be taken to be the case if the third argument is FALSE.
In a simplified example, take production of 50 in 2001, increasing by an (unrealistically!) constant 5 each year. By 2015 this has reached 120, so for 2016 at the same rate of increase production of 125 should be expected. Your formula returns 9.35 so would predict production of 129.35, though we know to expect 125, as given by:
=LINEST(C16:C30,B16:B30)
when added to the latest available (120).
The former is too high a predicted increase because it assumes growth was from 0 to 120 in sixteen years, rather than what I have taken to be from 50 to 120 in fifteen.
As has been mentioned by #Byron Wall, Excel has the TREND function that may be used for linear extrapolation to obtain the next (16th) value like so:
=TREND(C16:C30,B16:B30,16)
This directly returns 125 for the, simplified, sample data.
HOWEVER, all the above assumes growth is linear. Taking say Brazilian corn production (Million tons) over the period (offset one year) this has been roughly (based on USDA.gov):
The red line is the Linear trend and green a fourth order Polynomial. They happen both to end up at the same place for one year ahead (the hollow bar) but predict different results from the latest six years:
It may be worth charting the data you have, and adding different trend lines, before deciding whether linear extrapolation seems the most promising for forecasting purposes. ‘Wavy’ (cyclical) progress is evident in many datasets.
I'm looking to compute and show individual row totals and a Grand Total. I just need the formulae to put in the boxes so the calculation is automatic but the problem is the calculations are a little complicated...
I'm using data validation to select the day type. This is what I think I need:
Assign a price to the day type (either Standard day = £23 or Extended day = £26).
Apply a volume discount where appropriate. If Jack is attending all week (5 days) and the day type is the same for all (all Standard or all Extended), the total cost is £100 (or £120)
Else the total number of days needs to be added up for Jack. (Number of days for each ‘day type’) and priced up.
For his siblings after the first, as above but apply an additional discount of 15%.
The grand total then needs to show at the bottom.
Well, it is not the best of data layouts but this may serve, in L6 and copied down to L13:
=IF(OR(A6="Brother",A6="Sister"),0.85* IF(COUNTIF(B6:F6,"Standard day")=5,100,IF(COUNTIF(B6:F6,"Extended day")=5,120,COUNTIF(B6:F6,"Standard day")*23+COUNTIF(B6:F6,"Extended day")*26)), IF(COUNTIF(B6:F6,"Standard day")=5,100,IF(COUNTIF(B6:F6,"Extended day")=5,120,COUNTIF(B6:F6,"Standard day")*23+COUNTIF(B6:F6,"Extended day")*26)))
and =SUM(L1:L16) in D16.
It would be better practice not to hard code the daily rates/discount, but extracting these from C1:D2 would have increased the length of the formula further.
Note also the result is not £429.95 (you may have changed your example after doing your calculations).